Crisis of the West

Rethinking the West: Security, Economy, and Geopolitical Realignment
In a world marked by rising instability, the Western alliance is undergoing a profound transformation. From the erosion of Cold War-era nuclear deterrence to ideological shifts in economic policy, both Europe and the United States are navigating a complex new global order.
For decades, the U.S. ensured European and Asian security through an extended nuclear deterrent. Today, that strategy is faltering. Russia’s aggressive posturing, China’s military expansion, Iran’s ambitions, and disruptive technologies are all contributing to renewed nuclear insecurity. President Trump’s scepticism toward NATO has revived old fears about U.S. disengagement, forcing Europe to consider autonomous security strategies—developed in cooperation with researchers, policymakers, and civil society.
As Christoph Heusgen notes, the classical Cold War "West" is dissolving. The U.S. is stepping back from its leadership role, while Europe remains anchored to democratic principles and the rule of law. This realignment is paving the way for new alliances—such as an "Alliance of Multilateralism"—with like-minded nations like Canada and Australia.
U.S. conservative thought is also shifting. Oren Cass, founder of American Compass, argues for an economic policy centered on the working citizen — supporting tariffs, re-industrialization, vocational training, and labor unions. His ideas depart from GOP free-market orthodoxy and resemble European social democracy more than Reaganomics.
A fresh analysis of the Trump presidency, grounded in the Elite Quality Index (EQx2025), suggests that institutional change is increasingly driven by intra-elite competition among tech, finance, energy, and education sectors. These elite shifts raise a critical question: are we creating sustainable value, or merely extracting it?
The European Union is also rethinking its role. Facing war in Ukraine, technological dependency, and internal weaknesses, the EU's "Competitiveness Compass" aims to boost investment, reduce bureaucracy, and strengthen supply chains. Yet this strategy risks clashing with traditional EU values such as sustainability, human rights, and free trade.
Finally, Trump’s tariff-focused trade policy has drawn criticism. Economist Martin Wolf argues that tariffs may reduce the trade deficit but harm productivity and investment. A smarter strategy? Channel cheap capital into high-value, tradable sectors—benefiting both the U.S. and the global economy.
As the geopolitical and economic landscape continues to shift, the West must reinvent itself—strategically, institutionally, and ideologically.

Book

Tomas Casas-Klett: Towards an Elite Theory of Economic Development: An Inquiry into Sustainable Value Creation (2025)

As we described our work on the publisher’s website: Institutions, the humanly devised constraints of economic activity, are outcomes of elite agency. Leveraging ideas from economics, sociology, politics, and strategic management, this book proposes an “elite theory of economic development”. The overarching goal is to foster sustainable value creation at the elite business model level. This work also aims to contribute to transformational leadership, and links are made to the annual Elite Quality Index (EQx), a measure of the value creation of national elites.

Book

Philip Manow: (De)Democratisation of Democracy (2020)

This book is the optimistic counterpart to Levitsky and Ziblatt, somewhat more demanding but also more original. Manow shows how democracy has become both more open and more vulnerable: more people are participating directly, while traditional institutions are losing their binding force. Many of today's crises arise from internal tensions between participation and representation. The book thus helps to understand the current transformation of democracy not only as decline, but also as the result of ambivalent changes.

Book

Daron Acemoglu / James Robinson: Why Nations Fail. The Origins of Power, Prosperity, and Poverty (2012)

To better grasp the broader aims of elite theory, it is worth taking a look at the now-classic work by Noble Prize winners. Daron Acemoglu and James Robinson link inclusive institutions to prosperity.

Book

Steven Levitsky / Daniel Ziblatt: How Democracies Die (2018)

You don't necessarily have to share the pessimism of this book to recognise its significance. Levitsky and Ziblatt argue that today's democracies are hardly ever destroyed by coups, but rather by the creeping erosion of democratic norms. The book contrasts current developments in the USA with the Weimar Republic and authoritarian tendencies in Latin America, thereby sharpening our focus on the specific situation of democracy in the present day.

Podcast

Martin Wolf: The Economics Show

Unfortunately, not me but Martin Wolf, the Chief Economics Commentator at the Financial Times, talks to Kenneth Rogoff about Donald Trump's trade policy, the future of the dollar, and what this means for other currencies.

Book

Alexis de Tocqueville: De la démocratie en Amérique (1835/1840)

Anyone who wants to understand the history of democracy, the history of America and the history of the 19th century in a good way will find a wealth of inspiration in this book. Tocqueville was an aristocrat without reactionary airs and graces who analysed the French Revolution and American democracy with critical distance – and in doing so understood them in a good way compared to most of the actors involved. His book on democracy in America is one of the most important classics of modern democratic theory.

Book

European Commission: The Future of European Competitiveness (2025)

Europe is another focus of elite theory which examines the performance of its elite system. There is no stronger diagnosis of the continents’ challenges than Mario Draghi’s report, "The Future of European Competitiveness" (2024) that benchmarks Europe against China and the United States.

Book

Vipin Narang / Scott D. Sagan: The Fragile Balance of Terror. Deterrence in the New Nuclear Age (2023)

"The Fragile Balance of Terror", edited by Vipin Narang and Scott D. Sagan, brings together a diverse collection of rigorous and creative scholars who analyze how the nuclear landscape is changing for the worse.

Book

Annie Jacobsen: Nuclear War. A Scenario (2024)

Up to now, no one outside of official circles has known exactly what would happen if a rogue state launched a nuclear missile at the Pentagon. Second by second and minute by minute, these are the real-life protocols that choreograph the end of civilisation as we know it. Based on dozens of new interviews with military and civilian experts, "Nuclear War" by Annie Jacobsen is at once a compulsive non-fiction thriller and a powerful argument that we must rid ourselves of these world-ending weapons for ever.

Book

Kenneth Rogoff: Our Dollar, Your Problem (2025)

Harvard Professor Kenneth Rogoff demonstrates that the dollar’s decline began before Trump.

Book

Jill Lepore: If Then. How the Simulmatics Corporation Invented the Future (2020)

This is a fascinating book that sheds light on early attempts to predict the future using data-driven forecasts and models – long before big data and social media dominated our lives. Jill Lepore takes us on a journey through the history of the Simulmatics Corporation, which in the 1960s attempted to control society through data analysis – first from 5th Avenue in New York for commercial marketing, then in the 1960 election campaign for John F. Kennedy, and at one point even in the Vietnam War. Their story impressively shows how technological developments and early forms of data analysis influenced the political landscape and continue to change our understanding of democracy and power to this day. But it also shows where the limits of the technologisation of democracy lie.

Series

Yellowstone

"We're steeped in liberal culture" – many conservatives claim that we are saturated with left-wing liberal culture. They say that everything, from films and television to music, is ‘woke’ and ‘out of touch’. However, some productions are particularly successful in reaching conservative audiences. The neo-Western series "Yellowstone", starring Kevin Costner, tells stories about family ties, loyalty, resistance to the state, the conflict between the urban coastal mentality and that of the north-west, and the connection to the land itself.

Podcast

Demis Hassabis / Lex Fridman: Future of AI, Simulating Reality, Physics and Video Games (2025)

Demis Hassabis, CEO of Google DeepMind and Nobel Prize laureate, in conversation with Lex Fridman. One central focus of contemporary elite theory is artificial intelligence (AI), as emerging elites redefine the political economy. To understand the nature of the technology ahead, give it a listen.

Podcast

Ross Douthats: Interesting Times

There are more conservative podcasts than there is time to listen to them all. But Ross Douthat's “Interesting Times” is worth the 45 minutes a week. His guests are mostly conservatives, some very well-known such as Peter Thiel and Vice President JD Vance, others increasingly well- known such as Oren Cass, or (for many of us) yet to be discovered such as publisher Jonathan Keeperman.

Book

Patrick Deneen: Why Liberalism Failed (2018)

In 2018, Deneen published what I still consider to be the sharpest conservative diagnosis of our times. In my view, it is essential reading. Oren Cass often sounds like an echo of Deneen.

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Students from the MIT Cybersecurity Clinic help local governments and other vulnerable organizations defend against digital threats.

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“SceneSmith” system uses collaborative AI agents to create realistic 3D environments of places like kitchens, hotels, and living rooms, where robots can simulate everyday chores.

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Climate diplomacy has gone freelance. Multilateralism must adapt, not disappear
Politics

Climate diplomacy has gone freelance. Multilateralism must adapt, not disappear

Climate diplomacy has gone freelance. Multilateralism must adapt, not disappear Expert comment thilton.drupal 13 July 2026 The recent London Climate Action Week revealed that while formal climate multilateralism remains under strain, climate diplomacy is becoming more diffused, implementation oriented and focused on delivering security. As much of Europe emerged from a record-breaking heatwave that closed schools, disrupted businesses and exposed the limits of adaptation even in some of the world’s wealthiest economies, London Climate Action Week (LCAW) took on particular salience. While the impacts of climate change were unfolding in real time, more than 75,000 participants from across the world attended over 1,300 events to debate the future of global climate action.The central takeaway was not simply renewed urgency. It was that climate diplomacy is changing shape and that climate action is happening. In recent years, many have questioned the effectiveness of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The slow pace of consensus-based negotiations and the limited progress made at its annual COP summits have led some to argue that climate multilateralism is dead, or at least on life support.  Governments must adapt to a world in which climate leadership is defined by implementing practical solutions through coalitions. LCAW is not itself a formal multilateral forum, but it did offer an important window into how climate diplomacy more broadly is evolving. It highlighted that alongside multilateral negotiations, complementary forms of international climate cooperation that focus on implementation and coalition-building are growing in importance. Climate leadership is becoming less about grand declarations and more about sustained credibility and action. As geopolitical tensions reshape energy markets, trade, security priorities and development pathways, much of the practical work is increasingly taking place outside traditional multilateral channels. Governments remain essential actors, but they now operate within a much broader ecosystem of cities, businesses, financial institutions, philanthropists and civil society. LCAW pointed to how climate diplomacy is becoming more diffuse – and arguably more suited to the current fragmented geopolitical era. Three shifts stood out.Climate security looms largeFirst, climate security has become an increasingly central part of the climate conversation. The recent Strait of Hormuz crisis is a stark reminder that today, geopolitical instability, energy security and the transition away from fossil fuels are increasingly intertwined, reinforcing the need to strengthen resilience while accelerating climate action. Increasingly, climate change and biodiversity loss are recognised as interconnected security challenges, as reflected for example in the UK government’s recent national security assessment on global ecosystems. As a result, climate is no longer being treated as a standalone environmental issue but as part of a broader nexus of environmental change driving risks across security, economic resilience and public health. The UK’s new Climate Security Taskforce, launched during LCAW, is a case in point. The taskforce brings together leading experts to advise the government on how to tackle growing climate threats. Related work It isn’t easy being green: The UK’s net zero trilemma The taskforce helps cement the UK’s leading role in shaping climate security thinking. The UK first recognized climate change as a core national security challenge in its 2008 National Security Strategy. More recently, the National Security Strategy 2025, Strategic Defence Review 2025 and the launch of the taskforce demonstrate how this framing has become increasingly embedded in the UK’s national security planning.Other governments are also increasingly explicitly treating climate change as a national security issue. Germany’s 2023 National Security Strategy recognizes that ‘our international and security environment … is increasingly defined by the existential threat posed by the climate crisis’. France’s 2022 National Strategic Review, Australia’s 2024 National Defence Strategy and Japan’s 2022 National Security Strategy all integrate climate into assessments of national resilience, strategic risk and economic security. This trend is here to stay.Shift towards practical delivery Second, the conversation is shifting from climate commitments to their implementation, with increasing emphasis on practical measures that deliver multiple benefits beyond emissions reductions.  Climate action is becoming more explicitly linked to building resilience, strengthening energy security, enhancing industrial competitiveness and supporting economic growth. Discussions on the energy transition are increasingly centred on competitiveness, industrial strategy and electrification initiatives. This reflects a growing recognition that fossil fuel dependence is itself a strategic vulnerability and that resilient, diversified energy systems are central to long-term security. At LCAW, this shift was captured by the launch of the Electrify Now initiative – a coalition of governments and non-government organizations backed by the European Commission, the UK, Turkey, Australia, Ethiopia, and others. By promoting electrification across transport, buildings and industry, the initiative frames electrification not simply as a climate objective, but as a strategy for energy security, economic competitiveness and resilience. In doing so, it translates ambitious climate goals into concrete implementable actions with clear economic and strategic benefits. At the same time, water and nature have emerged as entry points for building resilience. Water is beginning to receive the strategic attention it deserves. In many regions, water stress is already driving instability, yet shared water resources can also provide opportunities for cooperation and diplomacy. This is illustrated by transboundary river basins such as the Mekong or the Senegal, where competing national interests coexist with sustained diplomatic engagement and institutional cooperation.

Chatham House

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Politics

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Das US-Militär hat mehrfach Angriffe auf den Iran geflogen. Omid Nouripour (Grüne) hält eine Rückkehr an den Verhandlungstisch für schwierig. Beim Konflikt gehe es dem iranischen Regime zudem nicht nur um die Straße von Hormus.Heckmann, Dirk-Oliver

Deutschlandfunk

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